Bitcoin trades near $69,700 as the OBV weakens, a TBT divergence appears, and macroeconomic pressure from the DXY and USDJPY maintains downside risk for BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin is trading near $69,700 this Tuesday, up more than 4% in 24 hours. On the surface, this looks like a recovery.
The chart tells a different story. CoinMarketCap data puts the market capitalization at $1.374 trillion, with a 0.69% decline over the past 24 hours still visible on the weekly chart despite today’s rebound. The Fear and Greed Index is in extreme fear territory at 11. Yesterday it was 13. A week ago, it was 11. A month ago, it was 12. The market hasn’t left this zone for weeks.
The rebound does not correspond to the underlying situation
Crypto analyst MooninPapa, on X , detailed the full picture. Bitcoin touched $70,350 on Monday. The price is inside the Ichimoku cloud, which in itself could be considered neutral. But everything surrounding this signal points downward.
The slow line is weak. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is declining. A new Tired/Bull Trap divergence warning has appeared. These three elements together suggest that the push towards $70,000 lacked real conviction.
Sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has already reached a five-week low, with bearish positioning strengthening in the derivatives markets. This trend directly aligns with current technical indicators.
ETH presents the same problem
Ethereum is offering no respite. The price has held within the cloud, but the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is reversing. The OBV is also weakening. MooninPapa noted on X that the ETHBTC ratio is approaching a critical resistance zone.
This level will determine whether altcoins benefit from a brief rebound in relative strength or if the entire market reverses again. Stablecoin dominance remains high. The TOTALES index (total market cap excluding BTC and ETH) looks dangerous. The TOTAL3ESBTC index (total market cap excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) is at a level where altcoins could briefly outperform BTC, even in a weak overall market.
Bitcoin recently defended the $72,000 level thanks to strong spot demand , but that level is now above the current price. It remains to be seen whether spot buyers will return to those levels or wait for a pullback.
Traditional finance (TradFi) is giving crypto no respite
The DXY (Dollar Index) remains firm. The USD/JPY pair is testing dangerous levels near 160, an area that historically creates stress across risk assets. The SPX (S&P 500) and ES (E-mini S&P 500) futures remain fragile despite entering the cloud. The VIX (Volatility Index) is stuck in what MooninPapa described on X as a prolonged zone of uncertainty.
Oil prices are trending upward. None of this creates a favorable environment for a breakout. As long as these pressures persist, a further decline remains the most likely scenario before a clearer bullish pattern can form.
Late signals on already very broad charts
MooninPapa highlighted a key theme in his picks for the day: caution after explosive moves. Charts like those for M, ALGO, RENDER, 2Z, and MON show late breakout signals after already making significant gains.
Late entries after prolonged moves tend to trap buyers. This vulnerability is the main risk for these assets currently. On the other hand, some charts still need to reach lower levels before offering a real accumulation opportunity. Chasing either direction presents a similar risk here.
Disclaimer: This article is based solely on the technical analysis of the cited source and constitutes a news report only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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