{"id":207,"date":"2026-03-30T04:19:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:19:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/planb-dit-que-le-bitcoin-top-nest-pas-present-et-le-modele-s2f-est-daccord\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T04:19:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:19:38","slug":"planb-dit-que-le-bitcoin-top-nest-pas-present-et-le-modele-s2f-est-daccord","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/planb-dit-que-le-bitcoin-top-nest-pas-present-et-le-modele-s2f-est-daccord\/","title":{"rendered":"PlanB dit que le Bitcoin Top n’est pas pr\u00e9sent et le mod\u00e8le S2F est d’accord"},"content":{"rendered":"

PlanB affirme que le sommet de Bitcoin n’est pas atteint, car le mod\u00e8le S2F laisse entrevoir davantage d’avantages gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des tendances de raret\u00e9 et de cycle.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

PlanB dit que<\/span>Haut Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>n\u2019est pas pr\u00e9sent, et son mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow soutient toujours ce point de vue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La d\u00e9claration a renouvel\u00e9 l’int\u00e9r\u00eat pour trois articles Medium publi\u00e9s entre 2019 et 2020. Ces articles ont construit le cadre Stock-to-Flow et ont li\u00e9 la valeur du Bitcoin \u00e0 la raret\u00e9 de l’offre.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont \u00e9galement fa\u00e7onn\u00e9 un d\u00e9bat de longue date sur la r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des cycles et les attentes en mati\u00e8re de prix du Bitcoin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lire aussi :<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Satoshi, Coinbase, BlackRock : qui poss\u00e8de le plus de Bitcoin en 2026 ?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Le mod\u00e8le S2F de PlanB lie la valeur du Bitcoin \u00e0 la raret\u00e9<\/b><\/h2>\n

PlanB a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le premier mod\u00e8le en mars 2019 via \u00ab\u00a0Mod\u00e9lisation de la valeur Bitcoin avec raret\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb. Dans cet article, il affirmait que la raret\u00e9 \u00e9tait le principal facteur de valeur des actifs mon\u00e9taires.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont compar\u00e9 le Bitcoin \u00e0 l\u2019or et \u00e0 l\u2019argent en utilisant le ratio stock\/flux.<\/span><\/p>\n

Le ratio stock\/flux mesure l\u2019offre existante par rapport \u00e0 la nouvelle offre annuelle. \u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, Bitcoin comptait environ 17,5 millions de pi\u00e8ces en circulation. L\u2019offre annuelle \u00e9tait d\u2019environ 0,7 million de pi\u00e8ces, ce qui pla\u00e7ait Bitcoin \u00e0 proximit\u00e9 des m\u00e9taux mon\u00e9taires.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"PlanB\u2019s
Le mod\u00e8le S2F de PlanB relie la raret\u00e9 au prix, Source |PlaB\/X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

PlanB a utilis\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es mensuelles Bitcoin de 2009 au d\u00e9but 2019. Ils ont appliqu\u00e9 une r\u00e9gression en loi de puissance entre<\/span>Prix \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bdu Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>et le ratio stock\/flux. Le mod\u00e8le sugg\u00e8re un lien statistique fort entre une raret\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e et une valeur marchande plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont \u00e9galement soulign\u00e9 le calendrier de r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 du Bitcoin comme le principal moteur de la p\u00e9nurie croissante. Chaque r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 r\u00e9duit l\u2019offre nouvelle et augmente le ratio stock\/flux. Cette structure est devenue la base de ses perspectives de prix \u00e0 long terme.<\/span><\/p>\n

PlanB a d\u00e9fendu le mod\u00e8le S2F contre les critiques d’EMH<\/b><\/h2>\n

En janvier 2020, PlanB a publi\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model\u00a0\u00bb. Cet article r\u00e9pondait \u00e0 une critique courante du premier mod\u00e8le.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Les critiques ont soutenu que<\/span>R\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 du Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>\u00e9taient connus \u00e0 l\u2019avance et devraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre pris en compte.<\/span><\/p>\n

PlanB a r\u00e9pondu que les march\u00e9s pouvaient encore mal \u00e9valuer le Bitcoin, car les investisseurs surestimaient souvent les risques majeurs. Ils ont r\u00e9pertori\u00e9 les interdictions gouvernementales, les hard forks, les spirales mortelles des mineurs, les escroqueries et les attaques \u00e0 51 %. Ils ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que ces craintes affectaient la fa\u00e7on dont le march\u00e9 fixait le prix du Bitcoin.<\/span><\/p>\n

De plus, ils ont \u00e9galement compar\u00e9 Bitcoin aux obligations, \u00e0 l\u2019or et aux actions via un graphique risque-rendement. Dans cette comparaison, Bitcoin a affich\u00e9 des rendements bien sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la ligne attendue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

PlanB a fait valoir que les mod\u00e8les classiques n\u2019expliquaient pas bien cet \u00e9cart.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont ajout\u00e9 que les march\u00e9s \u00e0 terme et d\u2019options n\u2019avaient montr\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque aucun pic majeur avant la r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9. Pour eux, cela confortait l\u2019id\u00e9e selon laquelle la peur faisait toujours partie de<\/span>Tarification des Bitcoins<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cet argument l\u2019a aid\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9fendre le mod\u00e8le de la raret\u00e9 contre les all\u00e9gations d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 du march\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lecture connexe\u00a0:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

Le prix du Bitcoin se stabilise \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 70 000 $ alors que les flux institutionnels deviennent n\u00e9gatifs<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

S2FX a \u00e9tendu le mod\u00e8le aux phases et m\u00e9taux Bitcoin<\/b><\/h2>\n

En avril 2020, PlanB a publi\u00e9 \u00ab Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model \u00bb, \u00e9galement appel\u00e9 S2FX.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cette version est all\u00e9e au-del\u00e0 d\u2019un simple graphique Bitcoin en s\u00e9rie chronologique. Il a trait\u00e9 les \u00e9poques post-r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 de Bitcoin comme des phases distinctes avec des r\u00f4les distincts sur le march\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont regroup\u00e9 l\u2019histoire du Bitcoin en quatre \u00e9tapes. Ces \u00e9tapes \u00e9taient la preuve de concept, les paiements, l’e-gold et<\/span>actifs financiers<\/span><\/a>. Chaque \u00e9tape avait son propre niveau stock-flux et sa propre valeur marchande dans le mod\u00e8le.<\/span><\/p>\n

PlanB a ensuite ajout\u00e9 l’argent et l’or au m\u00eame cadre de r\u00e9gression. Ils ont rapport\u00e9 une formule utilisant la valeur marchande et le stock-flux sur une base log-log. L’article indique que le mod\u00e8le produit un ajustement statistique tr\u00e8s solide sur tous les points de donn\u00e9es.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cette version a augment\u00e9 la valeur projet\u00e9e pour la phase 2020 \u00e0 2024 de Bitcoin. PlanB a estim\u00e9 une valeur marchande proche de 5,5 billions de dollars. Sur la base d\u2019environ 19 millions de pi\u00e8ces, cela indique un prix Bitcoin proche de 288 000 $.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pris ensemble, les trois articles formaient une nette progression.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Le premier a introduit le mod\u00e8le de la raret\u00e9, le second l\u2019a d\u00e9fendu et le troisi\u00e8me l\u2019a \u00e9largi. Ce cadre explique toujours pourquoi PlanB dit que le sommet Bitcoin n’est pas pr\u00e9sent.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour leur mod\u00e8le, une raret\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e apr\u00e8s une r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 laisse encore place \u00e0 une hausse suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Source : Live Bitcoin News<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PlanB affirme que le sommet de Bitcoin n’est pas atteint, car le mod\u00e8le S2F laisse entrevoir davantage d’avantages gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des tendances de raret\u00e9 et de cycle. PlanB dit queHaut Bitcoinn\u2019est pas pr\u00e9sent, et son mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow soutient toujours ce point de vue.\u00a0 La d\u00e9claration a renouvel\u00e9 l’int\u00e9r\u00eat pour trois articles […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPlanB dit que le Bitcoin Top n'est pas pr\u00e9sent et le mod\u00e8le S2F est d'accord - France Live Bitcoin News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/planb-dit-que-le-bitcoin-top-nest-pas-present-et-le-modele-s2f-est-daccord\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PlanB dit que le Bitcoin Top n'est pas pr\u00e9sent et le mod\u00e8le S2F est d'accord - France Live Bitcoin News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PlanB affirme que le sommet de Bitcoin n’est pas atteint, car le mod\u00e8le S2F laisse entrevoir davantage d’avantages gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des tendances de raret\u00e9 et de cycle. 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