{"id":223,"date":"2026-03-30T04:14:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinabi-ng-planb-na-wala-ang-bitcoin-top-at-sumasang-ayon-ang-s2f-model\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T04:14:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:14:01","slug":"sinabi-ng-planb-na-wala-ang-bitcoin-top-at-sumasang-ayon-ang-s2f-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinabi-ng-planb-na-wala-ang-bitcoin-top-at-sumasang-ayon-ang-s2f-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinabi ng PlanB na Wala ang Bitcoin Top, at Sumasang-ayon ang S2F Model"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sinabi ng PlanB na wala ang nangungunang Bitcoin dahil itinuturo ng modelong S2F ang higit na pagtaas mula sa halving-driven na kakulangan at mga trend ng cycle.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinasabi ng PlanB ang<\/span>Bitcoin tuktok<\/span><\/a>ay wala, at sinusuportahan pa rin ng kanyang modelong Stock-to-Flow ang view na iyon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang pahayag ay nagpabago ng interes sa tatlong Medium na artikulo na na-publish sa pagitan ng 2019 at 2020. Ang mga artikulong iyon ay bumuo ng Stock-to-Flow na framework at iniugnay ang halaga ng Bitcoin upang matustusan ang kakulangan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Binuo din nila ang isang matagal na debate tungkol sa paghahati ng mga cycle at mga inaasahan sa presyo ng Bitcoin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Basahin din:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Satoshi, Coinbase, BlackRock: Sino ang May-ari ng Pinakamaraming Bitcoin sa 2026?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ang S2F Model ng PlanB ay Nagtali ng Halaga ng Bitcoin sa Kakapusan<\/b><\/h2>\n

Ipinakilala ng PlanB ang unang modelo noong Marso 2019 sa pamamagitan ng \u201cModeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity.\u201d Sa artikulong iyon, sinabi niya na ang kakapusan ay ang pangunahing driver ng halaga para sa mga ari-arian ng pera.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Inihambing nila ang Bitcoin sa ginto at pilak gamit ang ratio ng stock-to-flow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang stock-to-flow ratio ay sumusukat sa kasalukuyang supply laban sa bagong taunang supply. Noong panahong iyon, ang Bitcoin ay may humigit-kumulang 17.5 milyong barya sa sirkulasyon. Ang bagong taunang supply ay humigit-kumulang 0.7 milyong mga barya, na naglagay ng Bitcoin malapit sa mga metal na pera.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"PlanB\u2019s
Iniuugnay ng modelong S2F ng PlanB ang kakapusan sa presyo, Pinagmulan|PlaB\/X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Gumamit ang PlanB ng buwanang data ng Bitcoin mula 2009 hanggang unang bahagi ng 2019. Naglapat sila ng power-law regression sa pagitan<\/span>Presyo ng bitcoin<\/span><\/a>at ang ratio ng stock-to-flow. Ang modelo ay nagmungkahi ng isang malakas na istatistikal na link sa pagitan ng mas mataas na kakulangan at mas mataas na halaga sa merkado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Itinuro din nila ang iskedyul ng paghahati ng Bitcoin bilang pangunahing driver ng pagtaas ng kakulangan. Ang bawat paghahati ay binabawasan ang bagong supply at pinapataas ang ratio ng stock-to-flow. Ang istraktura na iyon ay naging batayan para sa kanyang pangmatagalang pananaw sa presyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ipinagtanggol ng PlanB ang S2F Model Laban sa EMH Criticism<\/b><\/h2>\n

Noong Enero 2020, inilathala ng PlanB ang \u201cEfficient Market Hypothesis at Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model.\u201d Tinutugunan ng artikulong iyon ang isang karaniwang pagpuna sa unang modelo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pinagtatalunan ng mga kritiko iyon<\/span>Bitcoin halvings<\/span><\/a>ay kilala nang maaga at dapat ay napresyuhan na.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sinagot ng PlanB na ang mga merkado ay maaari pa ring mamali sa presyo ng Bitcoin dahil ang mga mamumuhunan ay madalas na labis na nagsasaad ng mga pangunahing panganib. Naglista sila ng mga pagbabawal ng gobyerno, hard forks, miner death spiral, scam, at 51% na pag-atake. Sinabi nila na ang mga takot na ito ay nakaapekto sa presyo ng Bitcoin sa merkado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bukod dito, inihambing din nila ang Bitcoin sa mga bono, ginto, at mga stock sa pamamagitan ng isang risk-return chart. Sa paghahambing na iyon, nagpakita ang Bitcoin ng mga pagbabalik na mas mataas sa inaasahang linya.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nagtalo ang PlanB na ang mga klasikong modelo ay hindi naipaliwanag nang maayos ang agwat na iyon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Idinagdag nila na ang mga futures at mga pagpipilian sa merkado ay nagpakita ng walang pangunahing pre-halving spike sa panahong iyon. Para sa kanila, suportado iyon sa kaso na nanatiling bahagi ng takot<\/span>Pagpepresyo ng Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang argumentong iyon ay nakatulong sa kanya na ipagtanggol ang modelo ng kakapusan laban sa mga paghahabol sa kahusayan sa merkado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kaugnay na Pagbasa:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

Mga Flatline ng Presyo ng Bitcoin Malapit sa $70K habang Nagiging Negatibo ang Mga Daloy ng Institusyon<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Pinalawak ng S2FX ang Modelo sa Mga Phase at Metal ng Bitcoin<\/b><\/h2>\n

Noong Abril 2020, inilathala ng PlanB ang \u201cBitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model,\u201d na tinatawag ding S2FX.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang bersyon na ito ay lumampas sa isang simpleng time-series na Bitcoin chart. Itinuring nito ang mga post-halving na panahon ng Bitcoin bilang magkahiwalay na mga yugto na may natatanging mga tungkulin sa merkado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pinag-grupo nila ang kasaysayan ng Bitcoin sa apat na yugto. Ang mga yugtong iyon ay patunay ng konsepto, pagbabayad, e-gold, at<\/span>mga ari-arian sa pananalapi<\/span><\/a>. Ang bawat yugto ay may sariling antas ng stock-to-flow at market value sa modelo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pagkatapos ay idinagdag ng PlanB ang pilak at ginto sa parehong balangkas ng regression. Nag-ulat sila ng formula gamit ang market value at stock-to-flow sa log-log na batayan. Sinabi ng artikulo na ang modelo ay gumawa ng napakalakas na statistical fit sa lahat ng mga punto ng data.<\/span><\/p>\n

Itinaas ng bersyong iyon ang inaasahang halaga para sa yugto ng 2020 hanggang 2024 ng Bitcoin. Tinantya ng PlanB ang halaga sa pamilihan na malapit sa $5.5 trilyon. Batay sa humigit-kumulang 19 milyong mga barya, iyon ay tumutukoy sa isang presyo ng Bitcoin na malapit sa $288,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kung pinagsama-sama, ang tatlong artikulo ay bumuo ng isang malinaw na pag-unlad.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ipinakilala ng una ang modelo ng kakapusan, ipinagtanggol ito ng pangalawa, at pinalawak ito ng pangatlo. Ipinapaliwanag pa rin ng balangkas na iyon kung bakit sinasabi ng PlanB na wala sa tuktok ng Bitcoin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Para sa kanilang modelo, ang mas mataas na kakulangan pagkatapos ng paghahati ay nag-iiwan pa rin ng puwang para sa karagdagang pagtaas.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pinagmulan: Live Bitcoin News<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sinabi ng PlanB na wala ang nangungunang Bitcoin dahil itinuturo ng modelong S2F ang higit na pagtaas mula sa halving-driven na kakulangan at mga trend ng cycle. Sinasabi ng PlanB angBitcoin tuktokay wala, at sinusuportahan pa rin ng kanyang modelong Stock-to-Flow ang view na iyon.\u00a0 Ang pahayag ay nagpabago ng interes sa tatlong Medium na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSinabi ng PlanB na Wala ang Bitcoin Top, at Sumasang-ayon ang S2F Model - Philippines Live Bitcoin News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinabi-ng-planb-na-wala-ang-bitcoin-top-at-sumasang-ayon-ang-s2f-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sinabi ng PlanB na Wala ang Bitcoin Top, at Sumasang-ayon ang S2F Model - Philippines Live Bitcoin News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sinabi ng PlanB na wala ang nangungunang Bitcoin dahil itinuturo ng modelong S2F ang higit na pagtaas mula sa halving-driven na kakulangan at mga trend ng cycle. 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