{"id":244,"date":"2026-03-30T08:07:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T08:07:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinasabi-ng-bagong-pag-aaral-sa-bitcoin-na-mahalaga-ang-4-year-halving-cycle\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T08:07:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T08:07:48","slug":"sinasabi-ng-bagong-pag-aaral-sa-bitcoin-na-mahalaga-ang-4-year-halving-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinasabi-ng-bagong-pag-aaral-sa-bitcoin-na-mahalaga-ang-4-year-halving-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinasabi ng Bagong Pag-aaral sa Bitcoin na Mahalaga ang 4-Year Halving Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ang isang bagong pag-aaral sa Bitcoin ay gumagamit ng eigenvalue decomposition upang patunayan na ang 4-year halving cycle ay isang pangunahing tampok ng dynamics ng presyo ng BTC.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Presyo ng Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>ang mga paggalaw ay sumusunod sa isang tumpak, nauulit na ritmo, ayon sa isang kamakailang pag-aaral.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang researcher na si Giovanni ay naglapat ng mga advanced na signal decomposition technique sa kasaysayan ng presyo ng Bitcoin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang mga natuklasan ay nagmumungkahi na ang apat na taong halving cycle ay hindi isang pagkakataon. Ito ay, ayon sa pagsusuri, isang pangunahing tampok kung paano kumikilos ang Bitcoin bilang isang sistema.<\/span><\/p>\n

Basahin din:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Pagsusuri ng Presyo ng Bitcoin: Nakikita ng Goldman Sachs ang Posibleng BTC Bottom<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ang Presyo ng Bitcoin ay Nasira Sa Mga Mathematical Layers<\/b><\/h2>\n

Ginamit ni Giovanni ang Singular Spectrum Analysis, na kilala bilang SSA, upang hatiin ang presyo ng Bitcoin sa mga pangunahing bahagi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang pagsusuri ay isinagawa sa log space, na tumutukoy sa napakalaking hanay ng presyo ng Bitcoin. Bukod dito, ang asset ay lumipat mula $0.05 hanggang mahigit $125,000 sa buong kasaysayan nito.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bukod, ang agnas ay nakilala ang anim na pangunahing eigenvector. Ang unang eigenvector lamang ang nagpaliwanag ng 98.70% ng pagkakaiba-iba sa presyo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Inilarawan ito ni Giovanni bilang batas ng kapangyarihan, kung saan ang mga antas ng presyo sa oras ay umaabot sa kapangyarihan na 5.7. Ang natitirang eigenvectors ay nakakuha ng mga oscillation na naka-layer sa ibabaw ng base trend na iyon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang pagtatrabaho sa log space ay isang sinadya at kritikal na pagpipilian.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa linear space, ang<\/span>apat na taong cycle<\/span><\/a>nanatiling nakabaon sa ilalim ng ingay. Sa espasyo ng log, naging malinaw itong nakikita. Ito ay dahil ang paghahati ay nakakaapekto sa presyo sa pamamagitan ng mga pagbabago sa porsyento, hindi sa mga nakapirming halaga ng dolyar.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Parehong pangunahing konklusyon, dalawang pantulong na lente:<\/p>\n

Pinatunayan ni Giovanni na ang 4 na taong ritmo ay isang natural na eigenmode ng log-price dynamics (walang functional form na ipinapalagay).<\/p>\n

Ang ginawa ko:
Gagawin mo ang eigenmode na iyon sa isang production-grade, stable, bootstrapped na makina ng forecasting na may tahasang\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 David (@david_eng_mba)Marso 30, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ang Apat na Taon na Cycle ay Lumalabas bilang isang Core Eigenmode<\/b><\/h2>\n

Pagkatapos ay inilapat ni Giovanni ang Dynamic Mode Decomposition, o DMD, upang kunin ang mga pattern ng dalas mula sa data. Tinutukoy ng diskarteng ito ang tinatawag ng mga mananaliksik na Koopman eigenvalues.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang mga halagang ito ay nagpapakita ng ritmo at katatagan ng mga oscillation ng presyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Natuklasan ng pagsusuri ang mga maikling cycle na tumatagal ng 15 hanggang 30 araw, na naka-link sa regular na aktibidad sa merkado.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mas kapansin-pansin, nakakita ito ng dominanteng oscillatory mode na may panahon na 1,530 araw. Nagko-convert iyon sa humigit-kumulang 4.19 taon, malapit na tumutugma sa iskedyul ng paghahati ng block ng Bitcoin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang eigenvalue na nakatali sa cycle na ito ay may sukat na 0.9985. Bukod, ang figure na iyon ay nagpapahiwatig ng isang matatag, bahagyang nabubulok na oscillation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nabanggit ni Giovanni na nakahanay ito sa kung ano ang hinuhulaan ng teorya ng renormalization group para sa mga kumplikadong sistema malapit sa isang phase transition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Higit pa sa Bitcoin:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

Satoshi, Coinbase, BlackRock: Sino ang May-ari ng Pinakamaraming Bitcoin sa 2026?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ano ang Ipinapakita ng Mga Resulta ng Rekonstruksyon<\/b><\/h2>\n

Gamit lamang ang anim na natukoy na eigenvectors, muling itinayo ni Giovanni<\/span>Ang buong kasaysayan ng presyo ng Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bukod pa rito, nakamit ng reconstruction ang isang R-squared value na 0.9678. Ang resultang iyon ay higit na mahusay na umaangkop gamit ang hilaw na hindi naprosesong data.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang isang hiwalay na balangkas ng pagmomodelo na binuo kasama ng pananaliksik na ito ay nagdagdag ng karagdagang konteksto.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang modelong iyon ay may kasamang supply shock mechanics at rolling-window stability testing mula noong bandang 2015. Nagtala ito ng 200 sa 200 matagumpay na bootstrap run at nagpakita ng pare-parehong out-of-sample na kasanayan sa pagtataya pagkatapos ng 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang parehong mga diskarte ay dumating sa parehong pangkalahatang konklusyon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bukod pa rito, ang pagkakaiba ng panahon sa pagitan ng dalawang pamamaraan, 4.19 taon kumpara sa 3.797 taon, ay nasa loob ng ilang porsyentong punto ng idinisenyong apat na taon na pagitan ng paghahati.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ang thread ni Giovanni sa X ay malinaw na nagbubuod nito: ang<\/span>Batas ng kapangyarihan ng Bitcoin<\/span><\/a>at ang halving cycle ay hindi mga salaysay. Ang mga ito ay mga eigenmode ng isang kumplikadong dynamical system.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pinagmulan: Live Bitcoin News<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ang isang bagong pag-aaral sa Bitcoin ay gumagamit ng eigenvalue decomposition upang patunayan na ang 4-year halving cycle ay isang pangunahing tampok ng dynamics ng presyo ng BTC. Presyo ng Bitcoinang mga paggalaw ay sumusunod sa isang tumpak, nauulit na ritmo, ayon sa isang kamakailang pag-aaral.\u00a0 Ang researcher na si Giovanni ay naglapat ng mga […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSinasabi ng Bagong Pag-aaral sa Bitcoin na Mahalaga ang 4-Year Halving Cycle - Philippines Live Bitcoin News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/global.livebitcoinnews.com\/ph\/2026\/03\/30\/sinasabi-ng-bagong-pag-aaral-sa-bitcoin-na-mahalaga-ang-4-year-halving-cycle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sinasabi ng Bagong Pag-aaral sa Bitcoin na Mahalaga ang 4-Year Halving Cycle - Philippines Live Bitcoin News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ang isang bagong pag-aaral sa Bitcoin ay gumagamit ng eigenvalue decomposition upang patunayan na ang 4-year halving cycle ay isang pangunahing tampok ng dynamics ng presyo ng BTC. 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